Plains Cotton Growers (PCG) delegates spent the weekend at the National Cotton Council (NCC) annual meeting February 10-12, reviewing and approving resolutions to help guide the U.S. cotton industry in 2023.
“ It’s important to stay involved,” said Quentin Shieldknight, producer in Hansford County. “We must fight for farmers and our industry, especially considering what the USDA is doing with Phase 2 of the Emergency Relief Program for the 2020 and 2021 crop years. Influencing policy and implementation of legislation comes from involvement in organizations like PCG and NCC.”
PCG President Martin Stoerner, producer in Floyd County is excited for NCC’s advocacy efforts with the 2023 Farm Bill.
“I remember Congressman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) telling us last year to be organized in our priorities, to have a plan and to come with one voice,” Stoerner added. “I think we are in a good position to do that with the NCC. All working together through our national organizations to make sure our priorities are met with this year’s farm legislation.”
The NCC general session occurs on the last day of the annual meeting and provides NCC updates and appointment of new officers, as well as an economic outlook with projected U.S. planting projections provided by Jody Campiche, Ph.D., vice president of Economics and Policy Analysis.
Economic Outlook According to the NCC’s 42nd annual Early Season Planting Intensions Survey, U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 11.4 million cotton acres this spring, down 17% from 2022.
Upland cotton planting intentions are 11.2 million acres, down 17.3% from 2022, while extralong staple (ELS) planting intentions are estimated at 184,000 acres, representing a 0.5% increase.
“Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed,” Campiche said. “ Ultimately, weather and agronomic conditions are among the factors that play a significant role in determining crop size.”
Using five-year average abandonment rates along with a few state-level adjustments to account for current dry conditions, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 8.8 million acres for 2023 with a U.S. abandonment rate of 22.6%. Campiche added that these estimates could change based on weather conditions throughout the crop year.
Using the five-year average state-level yield per harvested acre generates a cotton crop of 15.7 million bales, with 15.2 million upland bales and 466,000 ELS bales.
“History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions,” Campiche added. “Relative to the average futures prices during the first quarter of 2022, cotton prices are lower while the prices of most competing commodities are relatively unchanged. Price ratios of cotton to corn and soybeans are at the lowest level since planting the 2009 crop. In addition, production costs remain elevated.”
Growers in the Southwest intend to plant 19.6% less cotton. Kansas growers expect to plant 1.7% more cotton, while Oklahoma producers expect to reduce cotton acreage by 5.8%. Texas acreage is expected to decline by 21.2%. Southwest respondents indicated an increase in corn, sorghum and wheat crops for 2023.
NCC delegates were reminded the expectations are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at survey time with actual plantings influenced by changing market conditions and weather. Producers will continue to monitor changes in commodity prices and input costs before finalizing their 2023 acreage decisions. Many producers will continue to face difficult economic conditions in 2023 with lower cotton prices and higher production costs.
Shawn Holladay Appointed Chair of National Cotton Council
Shawn Holladay, producer in Dawson and Martin Counties, will serve as the NCC chair for 2023. He is the first High Plains producer to take the helm of NCC since Eddie Smith in 2010. He will work with the council and government officials to influence policy and legislation favorably for the U.S. cotton industry.
“I am honored to continue my representation of the cotton industry in this new role,” Holladay said. “I would like to encourage all associated in this great industry to answer the call to lead. If we are not willing to represent our industry and support our organization, then who will? Our success rests with our willingness to be part of the process.
“Everyone is busy, but it’s imperative that part of our daily life be an involvement in the collective support of our industry. If we sit on the sidelines, we cannot be part of the solution. My family and farming operation has benefitted from the education and fellowship associated with participating in our local, regional, and national organizations. We have witnessed firsthand the absolute necessity of having a seat at the table.
“I hope to do my part in consensus building and maintaining cohesiveness with our industry. An industry with a track record of weathering the storm by working together.”
As the outgoing chair of NCC Ted Schneider of Louisiana made his closing remarks, he summed up the entire reason advocacy organizations like NCC are so important.
“I was told a long time ago that the world is ruled by those who show up. And the NCC shows up to fight for agriculture.”