Agriculture Supply and Demabd Estimate for U.S. 2022/23 cotton include higher production and ending stocks, no change in U.S. mill use, and lower exports.
Production is 438,000 bales higher, at 14.7 million, with yield at a record 947 pounds per acre, up 9 percent from the December estimate.
Exports are forecast 250,000 bales lower, at 12.0 million, with both projected world trade and the U.S. share slightly lower this month. Ending stocks are up 700,000 bales to 4.2 million, equal to 30 percent of projected use. The upland season-average price received by U.S. farmers is projected 2 cents lower this month at 83 cents per pound.
World 2022/23 ending stocks are forecast 370,000 bales higher this month as lower production is more than offset by a reduction in consumption. World production is forecast 330,000 bales lower than it was in December as lower production in India more than offsets gains in the United States and Brazil.
Projected world consumption is 850,000 bales lower this month, at 110.9 million bales, a 5.7-percent decline from the previous year. Compared with the December outlook, India’s 2022/23 consumption is forecast 500,000 bales lower, with smaller declines for Indonesia and Vietnam. Projected world trade is down 600,000 bales, to 41.7 million, as projected exports from the United States, India, and Argentina decline. Imports by China, Indonesia, and Vietnam are also projected lower.
WHEAT:
The 2022/23 U.S. outlook this month is for increased supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher beginning stocks as reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use is raised 30 million bushels to 80 million based on higher second-quarter implied disappearance based on the Grain Stocks report. Seed use is raised 3 million bushels to 69 million, reflecting larger than expected winter wheat plantings reported in today’s NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel.
The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks.
World supplies are raised 1.3 million tons to 1,058.1 million on production increases in Ukraine and the EU.
World consumption for 2022/23 is raised by 0.2 million tons to 789.7 million as higher feed and residual use for the United States more than offsets a decline for Ukraine. Projected 2022/23 global trade is increased 0.8 million tons to 211.6 million as increases for the EU and Ukraine more than offset a decline for India. EU and Ukraine exports are raised 0.5 million tons each to 36.5 and 13.0 million respectively on higher exportable supplies. Projected 2022/23 global ending stocks are raised 1.1 million tons to 268.4 million, with increases for the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and India more than offsetting declines in Saudi Arabia and Iran.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), feed and residual use, exports, and ending stocks.
Corn production is estimated at 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre cut to harvested area.
Total corn use is reduced 185 million bushels to 13.915 billion. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion,reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2019/20 marketing year. FSI use is lowered 10 million bushels, with reductions in corn used for starch and glucose and dextrose. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels to 5.275 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report.
With supply falling more than use, 2022/23 corn stocks are lowered 15 million bushels. The season- average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast down 7.3 million tons to 1,446.4 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater trade, and reduced stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil partly offset by an increase for China. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting declines to both area and yield, as heat and dryness during December and into early January reduce yield prospects for earlyplanted corn in key central growing areas. Brazil corn production for 2022/23 is cut reflecting dry conditions for first-crop corn in parts of southern Brazil. China corn production is higher based on the latest area and yield data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Barley production is raised for the United Kingdom but lowered for Ukraine.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2022/23 include increased corn exports for Ukraine and reductions for Argentina and the United States. For 2021/22, Argentina’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2022 are lowered based on observed shipments to date, while Brazil is raised. Corn imports for 2022/23 are lowered for Vietnam and Peru. China’s corn feed and residual use is raised based on a larger crop and lower sorghum imports. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Brazil, Pakistan, and Paraguay with a partly offsetting increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 296.4 million tons, are down 2.0 million.