Now that La Niña is out of the picture, farmers across Texas and the Southern Plains are anxiously watching both the skies and the Pacific Ocean, hoping a developing El Niño pattern will finally bring relief to ongoing drought conditions.
For producers who have endured multiple years of La Niña-driven variability, that could mark a meaningful, and potentially welcome change in the overall weather pattern. But for now, the focus remains on the coming weeks and whether the long-awaited shift begins in time to impact the 2026 growing season.
Meteorologists are predicting the likelihood of a strong “El Nino” this summer which could supercharge extreme weather events and temperatures should it occur. Experts are keeping a close eye on climate patterns developing in the Pacific Ocean that will enable stronger prediction.
A strong El Niño would put 2027 in the running to break global heat records, and could produce a series of devastating effects, ranging from supercharged rainstorms to drought depending on the region of the world.
El Niño is characterized by warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It’s one of three states scientists observe: La Niña, conversely, happens when sea surface temperatures are below average, and neutral conditions are defined when neither El Niño or La Niña are present and surface temperatures are about average.
During Niño years, the winds that would push warm waters to the west soften or shift direction, enabling the surface waters in that part of the Pacific to warm. Characterized by temperatures at least 0.5C above the norm, these conditions massively impact the weather and cause a rise in temperatures.
Conditions are currently shifting from La Niña to a neutral pattern, according to the latest outlook from the US Climate Prediction Center released on April 6, but models are showing a 62% chance El Niño will emerge this summer.
The cycle tends to create drought and heat across Australia, around southern and central Africa, in India and in parts of South America, including in the Amazon rainforest. Heavy precipitation, meanwhile, could hit the southern tier of the US, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia.