From the USDA
Countesy of Plains Cotton Growers
WHEAT: Projected 2023/24 U.S. wheat ending stocks are lowered 11 million bushels on decreased supplies that more than offset less use. June 1 beginning stocks are reduced based on the NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is reduced 1 million bushels to 64 million. All wheat feed and residual use for 2023/24 is unchanged and reflects disappearance for June-November as indicated by the December 1 and revised September 1 stocks released in the NASS Grain Stocks report; however, there are offsetting by-class changes to feed and residual use. The 2023/24 season-average farm price is forecast $0.10 per bushel lower at $7.20, based on prices received to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2023/24.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/ 24 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million on higher beginning stocks and production. The increase in global beginning stocks is primarily the result of revisions for Ukraine, where beginning stocks are raised 2.2 million tons to 3.5 million on downward revisions to feed and residual use estimates since 2021/22. Production is changed in several countries based mostly on updated government estimates, with increases for Russia, Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia more than offsetting a decrease for China.
Global consumption is raised 1.8 million tons to 796.5 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for India and the EU. Consumption for India is raised by 1.3 million tons based on greater implied use from the latest government-held stocks reported by the Food Corporation of India. EU wheat consumption is boosted based on larger projected imports from Ukraine, partially offsetting reduced use of feed grains. World trade is raised 2.4 million tons to 209.5 million on higher exports by Ukraine, Russia, Australia, and Canada that more than offset a decrease for the EU. Exports for Ukraine are raised 1.5 million tons to 14.0 million but are still below last year.
Projected 2023/24 ending stocks are raised 1.8 million tons to 260.0 million primarily on increases for the EU and Ukraine.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater production, larger food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), increased feed and residual use, and higher ending stocks.
Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up 108 million as an increase in yield to a record 177.3 bushels per acre is partly offset by a 0.6-million acre decline in harvested area. Total corn use is raised 75 million bushels to 14.6 billion. Corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.4 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels to 5.7 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report, and historical revisions to production and stocks from 2018 to 2022 following the recent Agricultural Census results. With supply rising more than use, 2023/24 corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast up 11.9 million tons to 1,513.9 million.
This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and higher stocks.
Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay partly offset by a decline for Brazil. China corn production is raised to a record 288.8 million tons based on the latest area and yield data from the National Bureau of Statistics. India corn production is raised on higher area. Brazil corn production is cut reflecting lower second crop corn area expectations.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2023/24 include increased corn exports for Turkey, but reductions for Brazil and India. Corn imports are raised for Iran, Iraq, and Turkey but reduced for the EU, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States, with higher imports projected for China. China’s corn feed and residual use is raised based on a larger crop. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting an increase for China partly offset by a decline for Brazil. Global corn stocks, at 325.2 million tons, are up 10.0 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. rice this month is for slightly higher supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher imports more than offsetting lower production. The NASS Crop Production 2023 Summary estimated all rice production at 218.3 million cwt, down 1.4 million from the previous estimate. The all rice average yield is estimated at 7,649 pounds per acre, down 58 pounds from the prior estimate. All rice imports are raised 2.0 million cwt to a record 42.0 million with all of the increase in long-grain on larger fragrant rice imports to date. All rice exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 85.0 million with all of the reduction in medium- and short-grain on a continued weak pace of sales and shipments. Projected ending stocks are raised 1.6 million cwt to 43.5 million and are 44 percent higher than last year. The season-average price (SAFP) for all rice is $18.40 per cwt, up $0.60, due to a higher California medium- and short-grain SAFP forecast.
The 2023/24 global outlook is for reduced supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks this month. Supplies are lowered 3.5 million tons to 689.4 million with most of the reduction the result of a lower China production estimate reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. World 2023/24 consumption is lowered 2.9 million tons to 522.1 million, mainly on a reduction for China.
Global 2023/24 trade is reduced 0.5 million tons to 51.5 million, mainly on a reduction on exports for India. Projected world ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million tons to 167.3 million as a reduction in China stocks to the lowest level since 2016/17 is partially offset by higher stocks for Indonesia, India, and Thailand.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is estimated at 122.4 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month. Higher soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed crops are partly offset by lower peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean production is estimated at 4.2 billion bushels, up 35 million, led by increases for Illinois, Missouri, and North Dakota. Harvested area is estimated at 82.4 million acres, down 0.4 million from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 50.6 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels.
With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are up 31 million bushels from last month.
The soybean export and crush forecasts are unchanged. With higher supplies and slightly lower residual, ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, up 35 million. The soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased imports and biofuel use, and lower exports and food, feed, and other industrial use. Lower food, feed, and other industrial use is partly offset by higher imports and consumption of canola oil.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is projected at $12.75 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents.
Global 2023/24 soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 399.0 million as higher production forecasts for Argentina, the United States, Russia, China, Paraguay, and Bolivia are offset by lower Brazil production. Abundant early-season rainfall improved yield prospects for Argentina and Paraguay, raising production 2.0 million tons to 50.0 million and 0.3 million tons to 10.3 million, respectively. China’s soybean crop is increased 0.3 million tons to 20.8 million on reports from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Soybean production for Russia is raised 0.4 million tons to 6.8 million on a higher yield. Conversely, soybean production for Brazil is forecast at 157.0 million tons, down 4.0 million from last month and down 3.0 million tons from last year’s record crop of 160.0 million tons. Reduced rainfall in the Center West region and northeastern States lowered yield potential. Another notable oilseed change includes lower global sunflowerseed production, down 1.3 million tons, on lower output for the EU, Argentina, and Russia.
Global soybean crush for 2023/24 is nearly unchanged, with lower crush for Brazil mostly offset by higher crush for Argentina, India, Bolivia, Egypt, and Thailand. Soybean meal trade is unchanged as higher exports for Argentina, India, and Bolivia offset lower Brazilian shipments.
Global soybean exports for 2023/ 24 are increased 0.7 million tons to 170.9 million, with higher exports for Paraguay and Russia. Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 114.6 million tons, up 0.4 million, mainly on higher stocks for the United States and Argentina partly offset by lower Brazilian stocks.
SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 5.016 million metric tons (MT), a decrease of 267,000 from last month and also 208,248 lower than last year. Analysis of the severity of drought conditions in municipalities where sugar processing plants are located indicates far worse conditions than last year and more comparable to that experienced in the low production year of 2019/20. Higher fertilizer application rates than the 2022/23 low levels are considered unlikely to improve sugarcane yields relative to those of last year. Although the campaign is still in its early stages, to-date levels of sugar yields and recovery rates are more than 3.5 standard deviations below the averages for the previous 10 years. Although some recovery will take place, applying the largest over-theweek increases since 2017/18 for recovery for each of this year’s remaining weeks produces a recovery rate of 10.65 percent. Applying this rate to area harvested at the CONADESUCA-estimated level of 798,286 hectares and slightly higher yield of 59.00 MT/hectare produces the current WASDE projection.
The production of low polarity sugar for export to the United States is projected at 11.8 percent of total production (the same rate estimated by CONADESUCA). Assuming that all of this sugar is exported to the U.S. market, and like last year, constitutes 75 percent of the total exported, exports to the United States are projected at 789,080 MT. Exports to other countries are unchanged at 25,000 MT and total exports at 814,080 MT are down 42,002 from last month.
Deliveries and ending stocks are unchanged and imports are residually projected at 510,867 MT, up 224,998 over last month.
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased by 189,687 short tons, raw value (STRV) on increases in production and imports. Louisiana cane sugar production for the crop year is increased 104,374 STRV to 1.850 million on industry reporting. Fiscal year production is projected at 1.904 million STRV adding in projected production for 2024 September (59,183 STRV) and subtracting out 2023 September (5,623 STRV). Beet sugar production is projected 43,860 STRV higher at 5.407 million on higher projected recovery only partially offset by lower NASS estimated sugarbeet production. Imports are projected 54,032 STRV higher at 3.310 million. Although imports from Mexico and FTA TRQs are down a combined 55,968 STRV, hightier tariff imports are increased 110,000 STRV to 575,000 on the pace of entries of high duty raw sugar. Based on both U.S. Census and Customs and Border Protection data, USDA estimates high duty raw sugar imports entered as of January 10 at 169,174 STRV. The raw sugar component of the total entries is increased to 400,000 STRV, implying that 42.3 percent has already entered. The refined sugar component is unchanged at 175,000 STRV.
Sugar exports are increased by 60,000 STRV to 160,000 on the pace to date. Most of this sugar is destined for Mexico. Deliveries are unchanged. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.754 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.7 percent.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat and poultry production for 2023 is raised from last month due to higher beef, pork, and broiler production in the fourth quarter. Changes in the estimates reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December. Egg production is raised based on production and flock data.
For 2024, the beef forecast is raised with higher expected first-half cattle slaughter, as well as higher dressed weights. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2024 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd. First-half pork production is raised reflecting pig crop data for the second half of 2023. Production in the second half reflects firsthalf 2024 farrowing intentions reported in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and expectations of somewhat slower- than- recent growth in the pigs per litter rate. Broiler production is raised for the first half based on recent hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered for the first half of 2024 based on hatchery data and expected pressure from lower prices. Egg production is lowered due to reductions of the layer flock as a result of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling through early January.
Beef export estimates for 2023 are lowered and imports are raised on recent trade data. For 2024, beef imports are raised largely on higher expected imports from Oceania. The export forecast is lowered on weaker sales to a number of markets in Asia. Pork imports for 2023 are unchanged, but exports are raised. For 2024, pork imports are unchanged, and exports are raised slightly. Broiler exports in 2023 are raised on recent trade data and 2024 exports are also raised slightly. Turkey exports are lowered for 2023 but raised for 2024 as prices are expected to remain competitive.
Price estimates for 2023 reflect December data. For 2024, cattle prices are unchanged. Hog prices are lowered in 2024 reflecting continued softness in demand and increased hog supplies.
Broiler prices are projected higher as demand strength in late 2023 is expected to carry over into 2024. Turkey prices for 2024 are lowered with soft demand in late 2023 carrying over into 2024.
Egg prices for 2024 are raised on recent prices and impacts of recent HPAI outbreaks on the flock size.
Milk production for 2023 is lowered from last month, with lower milk cow inventories and lower expected milk per cow. The 2024 production forecast is lower due to a reduced average cow inventory for the year and slower growth in output per cow. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy heifers for addition to the breeding herd. Fat and skim-solids bases imports for 2023 are unchanged based on recent trade data. Fat and skim-solid bases imports for 2024 are lowered, based on lower expected cheese and butter fats imports. Exports on a fat basis for 2023 are lowered based on recent trade data. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised for 2023. For 2024, exports on a fat basis are raised as butter and cheese prices are expected to be more competitive on the world market. Skim-solids basis exports for 2024 are unchanged.
For 2023, product and Class price estimates are adjusted to reflect reported prices. For 2024, prices for cheese are lowered due to recent price weakness, while butter, non-fat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are all expected to be higher. The Class III price is lowered, with lower cheese prices outweighing higher whey prices. Class IV prices are raised, due to higher butter and NDM price forecasts. The 2023 all milk price forecast is unchanged at $20.60 per cwt and the 2024 all milk price is lowered to $20.00 per cwt.
COTTON: This month’s U.S. 2023/24 cotton forecasts include lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Production is 342,000 bales lower, at 12.4 million bales, largely due to reductions in Texas. Exports are 100,000 bales lower, and ending stocks are 200,000 bales lower at 2.9 million. The season-average upland price received by farmers is projected 1 cent lower this month at 76 cents per pound. World 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast 2.0 million bales higher this month driven by higher beginning stocks and production together with lower consumption. Lower 2022/23 consumption in Uzbekistan accounts for most of this month’s 400,000-bale increase in 2023/24 beginning stocks. World consumption in 2023/24 is forecast 1.3 million bales lower than last month due to reductions for India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkey. World production is 260,000 bales higher with China’s crop up 500,000 bales and Argentina’s production higher as well, but lower U.S. production. World trade is little-changed as a 500,000bale increase in China’s projected imports is more than offset by reductions in Indonesia, Pakistan, and several smaller countries.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural OutlookBoard, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.