Generally, September is a wetter month for the High Plains region, and for the cotton that is still holding on, every bit of precipitation counts.
KLBK Chief Meteorologist Jacob Riley presented the 2023 harvest weather outlook — specifically for the months of September through November — for the Plains Cotton Advisory Group today (Aug. 25, 2023). “We will be focusing on temperature and precipitation trends,” he said at the beginning of the meeting, “As well as looking at how the drought will continue to progress around eastern New Mexico and West Texas.”
Rainfall
Riley presented Lubbock rainfall statistics showing Lubbock’s month-to-date rainfall at 0.07 inches. Average precipitation (data from 1911-2022) in September is 2.52 inches. Riley said that this September, the Lubbock area is projected to receive average rainfall, based off the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center.
Average precipitation for September through November in the city of Lubbock, based off data from 1911 to 2022, is 5.17 inches. “We’re still going to see a warmer and dryer weather pattern throughout this growing season, but we are hopeful that El Nino’s system will bring a wetter growing season for 2024.”
Temperature
“September temperatures look to be around 77 to 80 degrees, which is slightly above the average of 77,” Riley said. “This will likely feature highs in the mid-90s with lows in the mid- to upper- 60s.”
The average temperature during the September through November time frame is roughly 61 degrees, also based off of data in the Lubbock area from 1913 to 2022.
Based off the Climate Prediction Center forecast for temperature, the High Plains is looking at a range of 69 to 74 degrees from September to November.
To sum up, Riley said that persistent dry and warm conditions will continue to influence our overall pattern, though bouts of cooler air and rain are expected.
“As Earth’s tilt continues to change as we head into fall, we will start seeing more apparent pattern changes,” he said. “I believe we will undergo a more drastic change after harvest season as we head into winter. A cooler and wetter than usual winter is likely to begin late December into early January, hopefully replenishing ground moisture by the beginning of our growing season in 2024.”