How do you follow a year like 2021?
Record prices, surprising yields, and (mostly) favorable weather combined to give us a year like we haven’t seen in a good while. And although all signs point to more cotton acres across the U.S. in 2022, there are still some factors and unanswered questions that could impact the final total.
That said, based on a survey of our readers and other industry sources in early December, Cotton Grower magazine predicts that U.S. growers appear set to plant at least 12,538,000 total cotton acres – both upland and ELS – in 2022. That’s roughly a 7% increase over USDA’s final planted acre numbers for 2021.
We think it’s a good place to start, but also recognize that there are still multiple factors in play that could push acres another 5% to 10% higher…or not.
Comments we received from the survey indicated current market price, strong demand, and high yielding varieties as positive keys for acreage growth. On the flip side, higher anticipated input costs and product shortages, concern over potential changes to herbicide labels, shipping and supply chain issues, early indications of drought in the Southwest, and continuing water issues in the West are dampening enthusiasm and raising “what ifs” in the minds of some growers.
As an Extension cotton marketing specialist told us, “I can give you a scenario where acres could be up 20%. I can also see a scenario where they may be down 20% in certain areas.”
At press time, the positives more than offset the potential negatives. Here’s hoping our prediction sets a solid floor for a strong season in 2022.
Let’s look at what respondents told us on a regional basis.
Southeast
Overall, sources in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia indicated that they’ll plant 2,545,000 acres of cotton in 2022 – an 8.3% increase over 2021. Acreage in Georgia appears to hold steady at 1.2 million acres, while all other states show increases ranging from 10% to 27%.
“Many growers are booking cotton now for next year,” reported Guy Collins, NC State Extension Cotton Specialist. “Given the fertilizer costs of corn and our predominately dryland production systems, I’d expect cotton acreage to increase 20-to-30% in 2022. As always, a lot can change between now and planting time.”
“Fertilizer prices are too high for corn to pencil out, so that leaves our growers two options – cotton or peanuts,” said Georgia Extension Cotton Specialist Camp Hand. “Growers need to stick to their rotations for peanut diseases, so that leaves cotton. All that said, our cotton acres were high this year and we might go up a little bit, but I imagine we will stay fairly steady.”
“Alternatives are not many,” said Steve Brown, Auburn Extension Cotton Specialist, “so acreage will probably hold. Still, there are places in Alabama that have made excellent crops and are likely to expand.”
Mid-South
Welcome to the region showing the highest potential for acreage growth. In 2021, USDA said 1.7 million acres of cotton were grown in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and the Missouri Bootheel. Survey results show 2.01 million acres for 2022 – a healthy 16.8% regional increase that ranges from 5% growth in Missouri up to a whopping 66% increase for Louisiana.
“As an early prediction, I think we’ll be back near our 2020 numbers,” said Cotton Specialist Bill Robertson in Arkansas. “But I’m concerned with rising costs and the availability of almost everything. It could be a tough year to jump into cotton if this is a new crop or if growers have been out of cotton for a while. We know how to farm in a more predictable environment. This upcoming year will not be business as usual.”
I think there will be a slight increase from 2021,” indicated Brian Pieralisi, Mississippi Extension Cotton Specialist, “most likely close to our intended acres for 2021 which were cut due to excessive rainfall and prevented planting.”
LSU’s Matt Foster is the most optimistic. “Cotton acreage in Louisiana could potentially increase by 50-to-75%,” he noted. “I’ve spoken to several growers that are doubling their acres and have bought new cotton pickers.”
Southwest
Steady and manageable growth is predicted for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas acres. Combined, they’re anticipating 7,650,000 acres in the region – up 4.3% overall from 2021.
“At this point in time, based on my interaction with individual growers and representatives from regional commodity groups, it appears that anticipated planted acreage in Texas may be similar to 2021,” said Ben McKnight, Texas Extension Cotton Specialist. “There was a significant increase of 200,000 acres over early projections last year, and I feel like we may be in a similar situation this year. Growers are still in the planning stages, especially with anticipated input shortages and cost increases. “
“While the current price is encouraging, I don’t predict a huge increase in acres next year,” added Seth Byrd, Oklahoma State Cotton Specialist. “I think we could see a bigger increase if prices of other commodities are moderate. However, only certain commodities really compete with cotton acreage in Oklahoma. A drop in acreage could occur if the wheat crop is good, prices are strong, and producers elect to take that crop to harvest. Another factor is rotation, and many producers will stick to a strict schedule to maintain their rotation patterns, which tends to moderate huge jumps in acreage for those in these kinds of operations.”
Western
This is the region with the most questions for 2022 – and they all start and end with water.
Respondents indicated that California and New Mexico could see acreage increases ranging from 15-to-29%. But Arizona appears to be headed for an acreage decline due to ongoing water issues. That leaves a regional estimate of 333,000 acres of both upland and ELS cotton – a 5% increase over 2021.
“With the current water situation in central Arizona related to cutbacks in Central Arizona Project (CAP) water, I would estimate the cotton acreage across the state will be down to between 100,000 and 110,000 for 2022,” said Randy Norton, Extension Cotton Specialist in Arizona.
Snapshot in Time
Like all surveys, the Cotton Grower survey reflects a snapshot of the market situation and prevailing attitudes in late November and early December as 2021 harvest was wrapping up. Many thanks to the growers, ginners, consultants, specialists, and other industry sources for their input.
We look forward to comparing our results with the projections coming from the National Cotton Council in February and from USDA-NASS in March.